Guest blog by Claire Little, PhD researcher at Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, University of Manchester
People living with arthritis and chronic pain conditions know that pain is a fluctuating and unpredictable symptom 1. This can cause uncertainty and fear about the future severity of pain 2. I am working on a project to build a ‘pain forecast’ that would provide predictions of future pain. Like the weather forecast, or economic forecasts, this aims to produce predictions about pain in the near future. This information will allow people to better prepare and manage their daily life and pain.
The pain forecast is building on a previous study conducted within the Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, called Cloudy with a Chance of Pain. In 2016, researchers at the Centre conducted a national smartphone study, to investigate the age old belief that weather influences pain. They asked people to track their symptoms using a smartphone app and then used the GPS within the phone to pull their local weather data. Over 13,000 UK residents took part in the study, producing 5.1 million pain reports. The researchers found that days with higher humidity, lower pressure, and stronger winds are more likely associated with high pain days, a result consistent with the beliefs of many of the participants.
I am working with the original research team, using these data to produce a pain forecast. To ensure the forecast is useful for people living with chronic pain, we are running a small study to understand what people living with chronic pain are most interested in learning from a forecast. Examples of such information could be: pain severity predicted on a scale of 1-5, learning when a pain flare is likely to occur, or knowing when pain is forecast to fluctuate less. Once the model has been built, we hope to make this forecast available within a mobile app, so the information is available in your pocket.
This new study has two stages that will actively involve people with chronic pain: a focus group running in August, and an online questionnaire to be sent out later in 2021. By co-producing the outcome, we will ensure that the pain forecast is useful, valuable, and supports people living with chronic pain in managing their pain condition and daily lives.
ARMA members are welcome to take part in either of these stages. If you are interested, please feel free to contact me directly at claire.little@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk. More information and links to sign up is also available on our website.
References:
- [1] R. B. Fillingim. “Individual differences in pain: understanding the mosaic that makes pain personal”. In: PAIN 158 (Apr. 2017).
- [2] M. Crowe, L. Whitehead, P. Seaton, J. Jordan, C. Mccall, V. Maskill, and H. Trip. “Qualitative meta-synthesis: the experience of chronic pain across conditions”. In: Journal of Advanced Nursing 73.5 (May 2017).